Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 17.208514 19.632352 22.243752 25.262506 28.652015 32.336250 36.640011
2025-01-19 12.884618 16.007704 19.635217 24.144877 29.584772 35.918057 43.832168
2025-01-26 11.313396 14.835974 19.125840 24.706081 31.741415 40.282349 51.398462
2025-02-02 10.157648 13.973903 18.819588 25.377853 33.969649 44.783430 59.356773
2025-02-09 8.961049 12.865454 18.010220 25.221019 34.990378 47.678297 65.300430
2025-02-16 7.916138 11.824381 17.153545 24.866489 35.641445 50.039591 70.588432
2025-02-23 7.196694 11.145478 16.700188 24.976437 36.861514 53.152857 76.973720
2025-03-02 6.634871 10.627652 16.409083 25.257511 38.290573 56.576982 83.911946
2025-03-09 6.087413 10.071109 16.001086 25.311631 39.358557 59.505482 90.252511
2025-03-16 5.530492 9.442613 15.424574 25.051595 39.915559 61.688259 95.581021
2025-03-23 5.154555 9.062511 15.188798 25.275507 41.183640 64.939767 102.594434
2025-03-30 4.938462 8.920464 15.307428 26.045275 43.311762 69.552502 111.832108
2025-04-06 4.511302 8.395681 14.785090 25.775841 43.827001 71.788667 117.648430
2025-04-13 3.931947 7.555577 13.678959 24.472128 42.601138 71.255146 119.137630
2025-04-20 3.759263 7.416572 13.735041 25.096160 44.530810 75.754501 128.725769
2025-04-27 3.606514 7.298802 13.815180 25.758613 46.549786 80.477941 138.871682
2025-05-04 3.338658 6.941394 13.444456 25.605895 47.168145 82.932662 145.416960
2025-05-11 3.065352 6.547920 12.977199 25.244360 47.393512 84.728893 150.930454
2025-05-18 2.882299 6.313857 12.782704 25.356520 48.443320 87.940206 158.930959
2025-05-25 2.736496 6.140919 12.688110 25.641275 49.806578 91.733017 168.062899
2025-06-01 2.573528 5.917829 12.480219 25.696223 50.748501 94.827556 176.108185
2025-06-08 2.386813 5.627651 12.119469 25.432546 51.081795 96.857563 182.365120
2025-06-15 2.269093 5.474470 12.017551 25.659580 52.333532 100.556188 191.694652